Aminu Mohammed
Barely a year to the next presidential election in Nigeria, political activities are already taking different shapes for different political parties and their aspirants.
While president Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure expires on May 29, 2023, the scramble for that prestigious office has begun with several actors preparing to mount the stage to convince the Nigerian electorate why they need to succeed president Buhari. Although, several Nigerians are of the view that the APC under Buhari has so far under performed thereby looking for an alternative outside of the two major political parties, APC and the PDP, yet the serious contenders to the office of the president so far are from the two dominant parties.
The last 22 years of democracy in Nigeria have been years of distrust, misrule and disillusion. The prevailing security situation in the country which has given birth to terrorism, banditry, secessionist clamour and other tensions in different parts of the country have been blamed on politicians since the return to democracy in 1999.
Therefore, deeply disturbed by the level of hardship, frustration, backwardness and hopelessness Nigerians have been going through in the last 22 years under the APC and PDP respectively, the citizens are now more frightened than ever before about the future survival under these politicians that are been rotated after every four years.
In the last 22 years both the PDP and the APC have pushed this nation’s economy to a highly indebted economy. For now, this country is indebted to the tune of an estimated N33 trillion and side by side the grim picture of indebtedness, is the growing unemployment rate of over 33%. While the naira exchange rate is sailing close to a terrible level of N550 to the dollar, the current administration has been running helter- skelter to secure more loans while our foreign reserve gets further weakened. More worrisome is the rate of insecurity which has engulfed all parts of the country. With this gloomy picture, what future awaits the next set of politicians and do they have the magic wand to move Nigeria forward from the backwardness and hopelessness Nigerians have witnessed in the last two decades?
As the count down to the February 18, 2023 presidential election begins, the thrills, the intrigues and political arithmetic of the game is already moving from one “political shrine to the other” as actors in the two major parties have begun scheming to outwit one another. Former Lagos state governor, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu recently put speculations to reality when he visited the president and told him of his ambition to rule Nigeria. Ever since Tinubu whose presidential ambition to succeed Buhari has been in the open in the last seven years declared publicly to contest in next year’s presidential election, more and more declarations have been flying from several aspirants across party divide. So far in the APC, three other aspirants have indicated their intent while we still expect more surprises. They are, Gov. Yahaya Bello of Kogi state, Gov. David Umahi of Ebonyi state and former Abia state governor, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu. The nation is still awaiting governor Fayemi of Ekiti state to declare while the biggest shocker would come from former president Goodluck Jonathan as speculations go round that the Aso Villa cabal prefer him to Tinubu or any other aspirant. But as a member of the opposition PDP the only way he can contest under the APC is to decamp to the party.
Inside sources from the APC believe that there are several interests for and against both Tinubu and Jonathan particularly the APC governors who want one of them to succeed Buhari.
Tinubu’s presidential ambition was launched in Lagos since December 2014 when he hosted the APC and singlehandedly ensured Buhari’s emergence as the party’s 2015 presidential candidate. He had wanted to be Buhari’s running mate but Senator Bukola Saraki and some few party members kicked against a Muslim/ Muslim ticket which according to them would not only lead to the party’s defeat at the polls but dangerous for the country’s present political climate. Tinubu’s quest to rule Nigeria is a long term ambition and he has solid structures all over the country but there are members of a cabal in the Villa who feel threatened by his candidacy and eventual rise to Aso Rock seat. Apart from the cabal in the Villa some APC governors like Fayemi of Ekiti state , Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi , El’Rufai of Kaduna and Badaru of Jigawa are those clamouring for one of them to succeed Buhari in 2023.
According to sources, those who are rooting for Jonathan are those who are scheming to hijack his second coming which is only for one term hoping that power would return to the north after four years rather than waiting for eight years under a Tinubu Presidency. However, there are doubts whether the 2018 constitutional amendment would allow Jonathan to contest considering that any deputy who completes his boss’s tenure and spend another four years in office is assumed to have completed two terms. But then, if by any miracle those clamouring for a Jonathan come back have their way, the APC would have an exciting primaries with Tinubu and Jonathan as two big shots with each having a heavy political clout.
Furthermore, Gov. Yahaya Bello is seen as a front for Tinubu and that he is campaigning to to clear the way for his political benefactor.
The APC governors would eventually be the king makers considering their grip and influence on the party but the overall king maker in the party, Tinubu has said “there is nothing wrong in the king maker becoming a king”. So it going to be a battle of two king makers in one kingdom.
The internal squabbles and intrigues are not only peculiar to the APC as the PDP is also facing similar problems. In the last few weeks, the camp of former vice president, Atiku Abubakar has been touring states to canvas for support for their candidate and so far more than 24 states have declared their support for the former vice president as explained by the committee put in place to sell Atiku to the PDP supporters.
Apart from Atiku Abubakar, Sokoto state governor, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal is another likely aspirant to slug it out with the former vice president. Other expected aspirants from the PDP are, Senator Bukola Saraki, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state who has the backing of River state governor, Nyesom Wike.
The two most likely contenders for the PDP ticket are Atiku and Tambuwal. In 2018 at the Port Harcourt PDP primaries, Atiku beat Tambuwal, Saraki, Kwankwaso and others to raise the party’s flag at the 2019 presidential polls which he lost to incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari. Atiku, who has contested for the same seat in 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019 would be hoping to get his party’s sole ticket to go for round five which probably should be his last attempt to be Nigeria’s president. Just like in the APC there are divided camps on who should be the party’s flag bearer and from which part of the country. Although, the PDP has been advocating for power shift from the north to the south which was why it zoned the position of its national chairman to the north so that its flag bearer would emerge from the south, yet recent statements by some of the proponents of power shift suggest that, the party is shifting ground on that issue. River state governor, Nyesom Wike recently called on Bauchi state governor, Senator Bala Mohammed to come out and contest for the PDP ticket. Wike, who supported Tambuwal four years ago might have parted ways with the Sokoto state governor. Again, Oyo state governor, Seyi Makinde is being wooed by party members from the south to declare in order to justify the call for a southern president after Buhari.
As we await more drama, real and imagined in this season of declarations, the intrigues, obstacles, thrills and possibilities would keep changing all in a bid to rule Nigeria after the Buhari era.
The possibility of either Tinubu or Atiku succeeding Buhari in 2023 is higher but that also depends on whether Jonathan would be given a waver to go for yet another shot. The former president who is still a card carrying member of the PDP is being wooed by the anti Tinubu forces in the APC to ditch his present party and join the ruling party in order for him to do their bidding should he eventually emerge as the next president. However, if the 2018 constitution amendment has barred him from contesting, there are possibilities that Tinubu and Atiku may likely emerge from the APC and PDP respectively to battle each other on February 18, 2023. A Tinubu- Atiku clash is seen as a clash of the Titans. However, both aspirants do not have age on their side and it is part of what many voters would use against them.
But then, if again by any miracle, a dark horse emerges from a probable expected Third Force through alliances, the contest would still be exciting. It would however be very interesting to see Tinubu and Atiku who teamed up in 2007 under the Action Congress ( AC) against Yar’adua of the PDP now trying to outwit each other. In politics, there are no permanent friends or opponents but interest.
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